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Mekelakeya vs Addis Ababa Ketema — Premier League 2019

Mekelakeya
Mekelakeya
FT
0 – 3
Addis Ababa Ketema
Addis Ababa Ketema
10/31/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Hawassa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mekelakeya38%
×Draw28%
Addis Ababa Ketema34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mekelakeya
1.19
Addis Ababa Ketema
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 81 home / 15 away

creates per match

Mekelakeya
1.04
Addis Ababa Ketema
1.20

allows per match

Mekelakeya
1.00
Addis Ababa Ketema
1.33

finishing

Mekelakeya+0.00on par
Addis Ababa Ketema+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mekelakeya ↓

Addis Ababa Ketema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mekelakeya or draw
66%
Mekelakeya or Addis Ababa Ketema
72%
Draw or Addis Ababa Ketema
62%

Winning margin

Mekelakeya wins by 2+
16%
Addis Ababa Ketema wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mekelakeya 1+ goals
70%
Mekelakeya 2+ goals
33%
Mekelakeya 3+ goals
12%
Addis Ababa Ketema 1+ goals
67%
Addis Ababa Ketema 2+ goals
30%
Addis Ababa Ketema 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Mekelakeya (draw refunded)
53%
Addis Ababa Ketema (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mekelakeya at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.00 · 81 matches

Addis Ababa Ketema away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mekelakeya attack 1.04 + Addis Ababa Ketema defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.19

Addis Ababa Ketema attack 1.20 + Mekelakeya defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Mekelakeya scores more
38%
level
28%
Addis Ababa Ketema scores more
34%

Mekelakeya at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Mekelakeya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mekelakeya vs Addis Ababa Ketema

Addis Ababa Ketema beat Mekelakeya 3-0 in Premier League on October 31, 2021.

The match was played at Hawassa Stadium in Hawassa.