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Meizhou Meixian Techand vs liaoning hongyun FC — League One 2018

Meizhou Meixian Techand
Meizhou Meixian Techand
FT
6 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
liaoning hongyun FC
liaoning hongyun FC
5/6/2018League OneLeague One · Round 9Zengcheng City Stadium (Zengcheng)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Meizhou Meixian Techand48%
×Draw24%
liaoning hongyun FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meizhou Meixian Techand
1.64
liaoning hongyun FC
1.19

Meizhou Meixian Techand creates 38% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

creates per match

Meizhou Meixian Techand
1.40
liaoning hongyun FC
1.10

allows per match

Meizhou Meixian Techand
1.27
liaoning hongyun FC
1.87

finishing

Meizhou Meixian Techand+0.00on par
liaoning hongyun FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meizhou Meixian Techand ↓

liaoning hongyun FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Meizhou Meixian Techand or draw
72%
Meizhou Meixian Techand or liaoning hongyun FC
76%
Draw or liaoning hongyun FC
52%

Winning margin

Meizhou Meixian Techand wins by 2+
25%
liaoning hongyun FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Meizhou Meixian Techand 1+ goals
81%
Meizhou Meixian Techand 2+ goals
49%
Meizhou Meixian Techand 3+ goals
23%
liaoning hongyun FC 1+ goals
70%
liaoning hongyun FC 2+ goals
33%
liaoning hongyun FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Meizhou Meixian Techand (draw refunded)
63%
liaoning hongyun FC (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meizhou Meixian Techand at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.27 · 30 matches

liaoning hongyun FC away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meizhou Meixian Techand attack 1.40 + liaoning hongyun FC defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.64

liaoning hongyun FC attack 1.10 + Meizhou Meixian Techand defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Meizhou Meixian Techand scores more
48%
level
24%
liaoning hongyun FC scores more
28%

Meizhou Meixian Techand at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Meizhou Meixian Techand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Meizhou Meixian Techand 6–0 liaoning hongyun FC

Meizhou Meixian Techand beat liaoning hongyun FC 6-0 in League One on May 6, 2018.

The match was played at Zengcheng City Stadium (Zengcheng).