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Meizhou Meixian Techand vs Dalian Transcendence — League One 2018

Meizhou Meixian Techand
Meizhou Meixian Techand
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Dalian Transcendence
Dalian Transcendence
4/7/2018League OneLeague One · Round 5Zengcheng City Stadium (Zengcheng)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Meizhou Meixian Techand53%
×Draw24%
Dalian Transcendence23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meizhou Meixian Techand
1.73
Dalian Transcendence
1.06

Meizhou Meixian Techand creates 63% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 14 away

creates per match

Meizhou Meixian Techand
1.40
Dalian Transcendence
0.86

allows per match

Meizhou Meixian Techand
1.27
Dalian Transcendence
2.07

finishing

Meizhou Meixian Techand+0.00on par
Dalian Transcendence+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meizhou Meixian Techand ↓

Dalian Transcendence →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Meizhou Meixian Techand or draw
77%
Meizhou Meixian Techand or Dalian Transcendence
76%
Draw or Dalian Transcendence
47%

Winning margin

Meizhou Meixian Techand wins by 2+
29%
Dalian Transcendence wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Meizhou Meixian Techand 1+ goals
82%
Meizhou Meixian Techand 2+ goals
52%
Meizhou Meixian Techand 3+ goals
25%
Dalian Transcendence 1+ goals
65%
Dalian Transcendence 2+ goals
29%
Dalian Transcendence 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Meizhou Meixian Techand (draw refunded)
70%
Dalian Transcendence (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meizhou Meixian Techand at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.27 · 30 matches

Dalian Transcendence away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meizhou Meixian Techand attack 1.40 + Dalian Transcendence defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.73

Dalian Transcendence attack 0.86 + Meizhou Meixian Techand defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Meizhou Meixian Techand scores more
53%
level
24%
Dalian Transcendence scores more
23%

Meizhou Meixian Techand at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Meizhou Meixian Techand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Meizhou Meixian Techand vs Dalian Transcendence

Meizhou Meixian Techand beat Dalian Transcendence 3-1 in League One on April 7, 2018.

The match was played at Zengcheng City Stadium (Zengcheng).