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Meizhou Meixian Techand vs Beijing Baxy — League One 2018

Meizhou Meixian Techand
Meizhou Meixian Techand
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Beijing Baxy
Beijing Baxy
5/12/2018League OneLeague One · Round 11Zengcheng City Stadium (Zengcheng)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Meizhou Meixian Techand44%
×Draw26%
Beijing Baxy30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meizhou Meixian Techand
1.48
Beijing Baxy
1.18

Meizhou Meixian Techand creates 25% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 70 away

creates per match

Meizhou Meixian Techand
1.40
Beijing Baxy
1.09

allows per match

Meizhou Meixian Techand
1.27
Beijing Baxy
1.57

finishing

Meizhou Meixian Techand+0.00on par
Beijing Baxy+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meizhou Meixian Techand ↓

Beijing Baxy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Meizhou Meixian Techand or draw
70%
Meizhou Meixian Techand or Beijing Baxy
74%
Draw or Beijing Baxy
56%

Winning margin

Meizhou Meixian Techand wins by 2+
22%
Beijing Baxy wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Meizhou Meixian Techand 1+ goals
77%
Meizhou Meixian Techand 2+ goals
43%
Meizhou Meixian Techand 3+ goals
19%
Beijing Baxy 1+ goals
69%
Beijing Baxy 2+ goals
33%
Beijing Baxy 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Meizhou Meixian Techand (draw refunded)
59%
Beijing Baxy (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meizhou Meixian Techand at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.27 · 30 matches

Beijing Baxy away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.57 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meizhou Meixian Techand attack 1.40 + Beijing Baxy defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.48

Beijing Baxy attack 1.09 + Meizhou Meixian Techand defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Meizhou Meixian Techand scores more
44%
level
26%
Beijing Baxy scores more
30%

Meizhou Meixian Techand at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Meizhou Meixian Techand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Meizhou Meixian Techand 1–1 Beijing Baxy

Meizhou Meixian Techand and Beijing Baxy drew 1-1 in League One on May 12, 2018.

The match was played at Zengcheng City Stadium (Zengcheng).