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Meizhou Kejia vs Zhejiang Yiteng — League One 2018

Meizhou Kejia
Meizhou Kejia
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Zhejiang Yiteng
Zhejiang Yiteng
4/28/2018League OneLeague One · Round 8Wuhua People's Stadium (Wuhua)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Meizhou Kejia59%
×Draw22%
Zhejiang Yiteng19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meizhou Kejia
1.96
Zhejiang Yiteng
1.02

Meizhou Kejia creates 92% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 15 away

creates per match

Meizhou Kejia
1.80
Zhejiang Yiteng
0.80

allows per match

Meizhou Kejia
1.25
Zhejiang Yiteng
2.13

finishing

Meizhou Kejia+0.00on par
Zhejiang Yiteng+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meizhou Kejia ↓

Zhejiang Yiteng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Meizhou Kejia or draw
81%
Meizhou Kejia or Zhejiang Yiteng
78%
Draw or Zhejiang Yiteng
41%

Winning margin

Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+
35%
Zhejiang Yiteng wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals
86%
Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals
58%
Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals
31%
Zhejiang Yiteng 1+ goals
64%
Zhejiang Yiteng 2+ goals
27%
Zhejiang Yiteng 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)
75%
Zhejiang Yiteng (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meizhou Kejia at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.25 · 60 matches

Zhejiang Yiteng away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meizhou Kejia attack 1.80 + Zhejiang Yiteng defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.96

Zhejiang Yiteng attack 0.80 + Meizhou Kejia defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Meizhou Kejia scores more
59%
level
22%
Zhejiang Yiteng scores more
19%

Meizhou Kejia at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Meizhou Kejia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Meizhou Kejia vs Zhejiang Yiteng

Meizhou Kejia beat Zhejiang Yiteng 3-0 in League One on April 28, 2018.

The match was played at Wuhua People's Stadium (Wuhua).