Meizhou Kejia 1–2 Tianjin Teda: Result & Stats

Meizhou Kejia

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Tianjin Teda

M. Cheukoua 76'

Xadas 10'

A. Ademi 6'

6/29/2025

Super League · Round 16Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Meizhou Kejia54%

×Draw23%

Tianjin Teda24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Meizhou KejiaExpected goals in this matchTianjin Teda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.17

Meizhou Kejia

1.87

Tianjin Teda

1.17

Meizhou Kejia creates 60% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

1.73

creates per match

1.14

1.20

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

Meizhou Kejia

1.73

Tianjin Teda

1.14

allows per match

Meizhou Kejia

1.20

Tianjin Teda

2.01

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

Meizhou Kejia-0.20scores less

Tianjin Teda+0.12scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meizhou Kejia ↓

Tianjin Teda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Meizhou Kejia or draw

76%

Meizhou Kejia or Tianjin Teda

77%

Draw or Tianjin Teda

46%

Winning margin

Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+

30%

Tianjin Teda wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals

85%

Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals

56%

Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals

29%

Tianjin Teda 1+ goals

69%

Tianjin Teda 2+ goals

33%

Tianjin Teda 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)

69%

Tianjin Teda (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meizhou Kejia at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.20 · 17 matches

Tianjin Teda away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.01 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meizhou Kejia attack 1.73 + Tianjin Teda defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.87

Tianjin Teda attack 1.14 + Meizhou Kejia defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Meizhou Kejia scores more

54%

level

23%

Tianjin Teda scores more

24%

Meizhou Kejia at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Meizhou Kejia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

A. Ademi

Tianjin Teda · M

7.9

Match Events

6'

A. Ademi↳ C. Salvador

10'

Xadas↳ A. Ademi

46'

Zhong Haoran← Chen Xuhuang

46'

Wei Xiangxin← Liu Yun

46'

M. Cheukoua← Yang Chaosheng

46'

Huang Jiahui← Wang Xianjun

65'

Su Yuanjie← Ba Dun

66'

Haoran Zhong

66'

Guo Hao← Wang Qiuming

76'

M. Cheukoua↳ Liao Junjian

77'

Yang Zihao← Xadas

80'

Yi Xianlong← B. Jocic

84'

Cristian Salvador

84'

J. Liu← C. Salvador

89'

Yang Ruiqi← Wang Jia'nan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MeizhouTianjin

Overview

63%Possession37%

12Total Shots4

7Corners2

10Fouls17

Shots

12Total Shots4

6On Target2

6Off Target1

0Blocked1

8Inside Box3

4Outside Box1

Passing

63%Possession37%

481Total Passes292

396Accurate Passes212

82%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls17

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0