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Meizhou Kejia vs Shaanxi Changan Athletic — League One 2018

Meizhou Kejia
Meizhou Kejia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
8/31/2019League OneLeague One · Round 24Huitang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Meizhou Kejia39%
×Draw25%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meizhou Kejia
1.44
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 57 away

creates per match

Meizhou Kejia
1.82
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
1.42

allows per match

Meizhou Kejia
1.28
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
1.05

finishing

Meizhou Kejia+0.00on par
Shaanxi Changan Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meizhou Kejia ↓

Shaanxi Changan Athletic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Meizhou Kejia or draw
65%
Meizhou Kejia or Shaanxi Changan Athletic
75%
Draw or Shaanxi Changan Athletic
61%

Winning margin

Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+
19%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals
76%
Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals
42%
Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals
18%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic 1+ goals
74%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic 2+ goals
39%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)
53%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meizhou Kejia at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.28 · 61 matches

Shaanxi Changan Athletic away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.05 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meizhou Kejia attack 1.82 + Shaanxi Changan Athletic defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.44

Shaanxi Changan Athletic attack 1.42 + Meizhou Kejia defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Meizhou Kejia scores more
39%
level
25%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic scores more
35%

Meizhou Kejia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Meizhou Kejia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Meizhou Kejia vs Shaanxi Changan Athletic

Meizhou Kejia beat Shaanxi Changan Athletic 1-0 in League One on August 31, 2019.

The match was played at Huitang Stadium in Wuhua.