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Meizhou Kejia vs Kunshan — League One 2018

Meizhou Kejia
Meizhou Kejia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kunshan
Kunshan
12/22/2021League OneLeague One · 2nd Phase - 24Wuhua People's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Meizhou Kejia32%
×Draw25%
Kunshan43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meizhou Kejia
1.31
Kunshan
1.57

Kunshan creates 20% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 42 away

creates per match

Meizhou Kejia
1.82
Kunshan
1.86

allows per match

Meizhou Kejia
1.28
Kunshan
0.81

finishing

Meizhou Kejia+0.00on par
Kunshan+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meizhou Kejia ↓

Kunshan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Meizhou Kejia or draw
57%
Meizhou Kejia or Kunshan
75%
Draw or Kunshan
68%

Winning margin

Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+
14%
Kunshan wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals
73%
Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals
38%
Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals
14%
Kunshan 1+ goals
79%
Kunshan 2+ goals
46%
Kunshan 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)
42%
Kunshan (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meizhou Kejia at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.28 · 61 matches

Kunshan away — creates 1.86, concedes 0.81 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meizhou Kejia attack 1.82 + Kunshan defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.31

Kunshan attack 1.86 + Meizhou Kejia defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Meizhou Kejia scores more
32%
level
25%
Kunshan scores more
43%

Kunshan at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kunshan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Meizhou Kejia vs Kunshan

Meizhou Kejia and Kunshan drew 1-1 in League One on December 22, 2021.

The match was played at Wuhua People's Stadium in Wuhua.