Meizhou Kejia 0–1 Jilin Baijia: Result & Stats

Meizhou Kejia

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Jilin Baijia

4/16/2019

FA Cup · 3rd RoundHuitang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Meizhou Kejia13%

×Draw22%

Jilin Baijia65%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Meizhou KejiaExpected goals in this matchJilin Baijia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.67

1.83

Meizhou Kejia

0.67

Jilin Baijia

1.83

Jilin Baijia creates 173% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

0.00

creates per match

1.00

2.67

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Meizhou Kejia

0.00

Jilin Baijia

1.00

allows per match

Meizhou Kejia

2.67

Jilin Baijia

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Meizhou Kejia+0.00on par

Jilin Baijia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meizhou Kejia ↓

Jilin Baijia →

0–08%

0–115%

0–214%

0–38%

0–44%

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2–02%

2–13%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Meizhou Kejia or draw

35%

Meizhou Kejia or Jilin Baijia

78%

Draw or Jilin Baijia

87%

Winning margin

Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+

Jilin Baijia wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals

49%

Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals

15%

Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals

Jilin Baijia 1+ goals

84%

Jilin Baijia 2+ goals

54%

Jilin Baijia 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)

17%

Jilin Baijia (draw refunded)

83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Meizhou Kejia at home — creates 0.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Jilin Baijia away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Meizhou Kejia attack 0.00 + Jilin Baijia defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.67

Jilin Baijia attack 1.00 + Meizhou Kejia defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 65%?"

Meizhou Kejia scores more

13%

level

22%

Jilin Baijia scores more

65%

Jilin Baijia at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Jilin Baijia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff