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Meizhou Kejia vs Dalian Transcendence — League One 2018

Meizhou Kejia
Meizhou Kejia
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dalian Transcendence
Dalian Transcendence
4/15/2018League OneLeague One · Round 6Wuhua People's Stadium (Wuhua)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Meizhou Kejia58%
×Draw22%
Dalian Transcendence20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meizhou Kejia
1.90
Dalian Transcendence
1.02

Meizhou Kejia creates 86% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 15 away

creates per match

Meizhou Kejia
1.80
Dalian Transcendence
0.80

allows per match

Meizhou Kejia
1.25
Dalian Transcendence
2.00

finishing

Meizhou Kejia+0.00on par
Dalian Transcendence+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meizhou Kejia ↓

Dalian Transcendence →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Meizhou Kejia or draw
80%
Meizhou Kejia or Dalian Transcendence
78%
Draw or Dalian Transcendence
42%

Winning margin

Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+
34%
Dalian Transcendence wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals
85%
Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals
56%
Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals
29%
Dalian Transcendence 1+ goals
64%
Dalian Transcendence 2+ goals
27%
Dalian Transcendence 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)
74%
Dalian Transcendence (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meizhou Kejia at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.25 · 60 matches

Dalian Transcendence away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meizhou Kejia attack 1.80 + Dalian Transcendence defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.90

Dalian Transcendence attack 0.80 + Meizhou Kejia defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Meizhou Kejia scores more
58%
level
22%
Dalian Transcendence scores more
20%

Meizhou Kejia at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Meizhou Kejia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Meizhou Kejia 2–1 Dalian Transcendence

Meizhou Kejia beat Dalian Transcendence 2-1 in League One on April 15, 2018.

The match was played at Wuhua People's Stadium (Wuhua).