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Meiningen vs Hörbranz — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Meiningen
Meiningen
FT
1 – 0
Hörbranz
Hörbranz
3/19/2022Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 20Sportplatz Meiningen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Meiningen48%
×Draw22%
Hörbranz30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meiningen
2.00
Hörbranz
1.54

Meiningen creates 30% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 44 away

creates per match

Meiningen
1.80
Hörbranz
1.41

allows per match

Meiningen
1.67
Hörbranz
2.20

finishing

Meiningen+0.00on par
Hörbranz+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meiningen ↓

Hörbranz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Meiningen or draw
70%
Meiningen or Hörbranz
78%
Draw or Hörbranz
52%

Winning margin

Meiningen wins by 2+
28%
Hörbranz wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Meiningen 1+ goals
86%
Meiningen 2+ goals
59%
Meiningen 3+ goals
32%
Hörbranz 1+ goals
79%
Hörbranz 2+ goals
45%
Hörbranz 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Meiningen (draw refunded)
62%
Hörbranz (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meiningen at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Hörbranz away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.20 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meiningen attack 1.80 + Hörbranz defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.00

Hörbranz attack 1.41 + Meiningen defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Meiningen scores more
48%
level
22%
Hörbranz scores more
30%

Meiningen at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Meiningen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga: Meiningen 1–0 Hörbranz

Meiningen beat Hörbranz 1-0 in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga on March 19, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Meiningen in Meiningen.