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Meinerzhagen vs Westfalia Herne — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Meinerzhagen
Meinerzhagen
CANC
17:00
Westfalia Herne
Westfalia Herne
4/1/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 28Stadion An der Oststraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Meinerzhagen69%
×Draw17%
Westfalia Herne14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meinerzhagen
2.62
Westfalia Herne
1.12

Meinerzhagen creates 134% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 20 away

creates per match

Meinerzhagen
1.78
Westfalia Herne
0.80

allows per match

Meinerzhagen
1.44
Westfalia Herne
3.45

finishing

Meinerzhagen+0.00on par
Westfalia Herne+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meinerzhagen ↓

Westfalia Herne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Meinerzhagen or draw
86%
Meinerzhagen or Westfalia Herne
83%
Draw or Westfalia Herne
31%

Winning margin

Meinerzhagen wins by 2+
47%
Westfalia Herne wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Meinerzhagen 1+ goals
93%
Meinerzhagen 2+ goals
73%
Meinerzhagen 3+ goals
48%
Westfalia Herne 1+ goals
67%
Westfalia Herne 2+ goals
31%
Westfalia Herne 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Meinerzhagen (draw refunded)
83%
Westfalia Herne (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meinerzhagen at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

Westfalia Herne away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.45 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meinerzhagen attack 1.78 + Westfalia Herne defence 3.45 → ÷2 → 2.62

Westfalia Herne attack 0.80 + Meinerzhagen defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Meinerzhagen scores more
69%
level
17%
Westfalia Herne scores more
14%

Meinerzhagen at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Meinerzhagen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Meinerzhagen face Westfalia Herne (Oberliga - Westfalen)

Oberliga - Westfalen returns with Meinerzhagen hosting Westfalia Herne. Match starts April 1, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Meinerzhagen host Westfalia Herne at Stadion An der Oststraße.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.