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Meinerzhagen vs TuS Haltern — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Meinerzhagen
Meinerzhagen
FT
2 – 3
TuS Haltern
TuS Haltern
10/17/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 8Stadion An der Oststraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Meinerzhagen52%
×Draw21%
TuS Haltern26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meinerzhagen
2.06
TuS Haltern
1.42

Meinerzhagen creates 45% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 20 away

creates per match

Meinerzhagen
1.78
TuS Haltern
1.40

allows per match

Meinerzhagen
1.44
TuS Haltern
2.35

finishing

Meinerzhagen+0.00on par
TuS Haltern+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meinerzhagen ↓

TuS Haltern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Meinerzhagen or draw
74%
Meinerzhagen or TuS Haltern
79%
Draw or TuS Haltern
48%

Winning margin

Meinerzhagen wins by 2+
31%
TuS Haltern wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Meinerzhagen 1+ goals
87%
Meinerzhagen 2+ goals
61%
Meinerzhagen 3+ goals
34%
TuS Haltern 1+ goals
76%
TuS Haltern 2+ goals
41%
TuS Haltern 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Meinerzhagen (draw refunded)
66%
TuS Haltern (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meinerzhagen at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

TuS Haltern away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meinerzhagen attack 1.78 + TuS Haltern defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.06

TuS Haltern attack 1.40 + Meinerzhagen defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Meinerzhagen scores more
52%
level
21%
TuS Haltern scores more
26%

Meinerzhagen at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Meinerzhagen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Meinerzhagen 2–3 TuS Haltern

TuS Haltern beat Meinerzhagen 3-2 in Oberliga - Westfalen on October 17, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion An der Oststraße in Meinerzhagen.