Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Meinerzhagen vs TuS Erndtebruck — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Meinerzhagen
Meinerzhagen
CANC
14:00
TuS Erndtebruck
TuS Erndtebruck
3/28/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 27Stadion An der Oststraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Meinerzhagen57%
×Draw20%
TuS Erndtebruck23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meinerzhagen
2.25
TuS Erndtebruck
1.36

Meinerzhagen creates 65% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 35 away

creates per match

Meinerzhagen
1.78
TuS Erndtebruck
1.29

allows per match

Meinerzhagen
1.44
TuS Erndtebruck
2.71

finishing

Meinerzhagen+0.00on par
TuS Erndtebruck+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meinerzhagen ↓

TuS Erndtebruck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Meinerzhagen or draw
77%
Meinerzhagen or TuS Erndtebruck
80%
Draw or TuS Erndtebruck
43%

Winning margin

Meinerzhagen wins by 2+
35%
TuS Erndtebruck wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Meinerzhagen 1+ goals
89%
Meinerzhagen 2+ goals
65%
Meinerzhagen 3+ goals
39%
TuS Erndtebruck 1+ goals
74%
TuS Erndtebruck 2+ goals
39%
TuS Erndtebruck 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Meinerzhagen (draw refunded)
72%
TuS Erndtebruck (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meinerzhagen at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

TuS Erndtebruck away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.71 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meinerzhagen attack 1.78 + TuS Erndtebruck defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.25

TuS Erndtebruck attack 1.29 + Meinerzhagen defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Meinerzhagen scores more
57%
level
20%
TuS Erndtebruck scores more
23%

Meinerzhagen at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Meinerzhagen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Meinerzhagen face TuS Erndtebruck (Oberliga - Westfalen)

Oberliga - Westfalen returns with Meinerzhagen hosting TuS Erndtebruck. Match starts March 28, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Meinerzhagen host TuS Erndtebruck at Stadion An der Oststraße.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.