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Meinerzhagen vs Sportfreunde Siegen — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Meinerzhagen
Meinerzhagen
CANC
14:00
Sportfreunde Siegen
Sportfreunde Siegen
3/7/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 23Stadion An der Oststraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Meinerzhagen38%
×Draw23%
Sportfreunde Siegen38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meinerzhagen
1.61
Sportfreunde Siegen
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 72 away

creates per match

Meinerzhagen
1.78
Sportfreunde Siegen
1.79

allows per match

Meinerzhagen
1.44
Sportfreunde Siegen
1.44

finishing

Meinerzhagen+0.00on par
Sportfreunde Siegen+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meinerzhagen ↓

Sportfreunde Siegen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Meinerzhagen or draw
62%
Meinerzhagen or Sportfreunde Siegen
77%
Draw or Sportfreunde Siegen
62%

Winning margin

Meinerzhagen wins by 2+
19%
Sportfreunde Siegen wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Meinerzhagen 1+ goals
80%
Meinerzhagen 2+ goals
48%
Meinerzhagen 3+ goals
22%
Sportfreunde Siegen 1+ goals
80%
Sportfreunde Siegen 2+ goals
48%
Sportfreunde Siegen 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Meinerzhagen (draw refunded)
50%
Sportfreunde Siegen (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meinerzhagen at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

Sportfreunde Siegen away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.44 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meinerzhagen attack 1.78 + Sportfreunde Siegen defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.61

Sportfreunde Siegen attack 1.79 + Meinerzhagen defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Meinerzhagen scores more
38%
level
23%
Sportfreunde Siegen scores more
38%

Meinerzhagen at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Meinerzhagen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Meinerzhagen host Sportfreunde Siegen

March 7, 2021: Meinerzhagen take on Sportfreunde Siegen in Oberliga - Westfalen. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Meinerzhagen host Sportfreunde Siegen at Stadion An der Oststraße.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.