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Meinerzhagen vs SG Wattenscheid 09 — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Meinerzhagen
Meinerzhagen
CANC
13:00
SG Wattenscheid 09
SG Wattenscheid 09
5/24/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 38Stadion An der Oststraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Meinerzhagen39%
×Draw23%
SG Wattenscheid 0937%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meinerzhagen
1.65
SG Wattenscheid 09
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 70 away

creates per match

Meinerzhagen
1.78
SG Wattenscheid 09
1.76

allows per match

Meinerzhagen
1.44
SG Wattenscheid 09
1.51

finishing

Meinerzhagen+0.00on par
SG Wattenscheid 09+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meinerzhagen ↓

SG Wattenscheid 09 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Meinerzhagen or draw
63%
Meinerzhagen or SG Wattenscheid 09
77%
Draw or SG Wattenscheid 09
61%

Winning margin

Meinerzhagen wins by 2+
20%
SG Wattenscheid 09 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Meinerzhagen 1+ goals
81%
Meinerzhagen 2+ goals
49%
Meinerzhagen 3+ goals
23%
SG Wattenscheid 09 1+ goals
80%
SG Wattenscheid 09 2+ goals
47%
SG Wattenscheid 09 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Meinerzhagen (draw refunded)
51%
SG Wattenscheid 09 (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meinerzhagen at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

SG Wattenscheid 09 away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.51 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meinerzhagen attack 1.78 + SG Wattenscheid 09 defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.65

SG Wattenscheid 09 attack 1.76 + Meinerzhagen defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Meinerzhagen scores more
39%
level
23%
SG Wattenscheid 09 scores more
37%

Meinerzhagen at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Meinerzhagen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Meinerzhagen vs SG Wattenscheid 09 — Match Preview

Meinerzhagen face SG Wattenscheid 09 on May 24, 2021 in this Oberliga - Westfalen fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Meinerzhagen host SG Wattenscheid 09 at Stadion An der Oststraße.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.