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Meinerzhagen vs Hammer SpVg — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Meinerzhagen
Meinerzhagen
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hammer SpVg
Hammer SpVg
5/1/2022Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - Relegation Round - 5Stadion An der Oststraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Meinerzhagen59%
×Draw21%
Hammer SpVg21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meinerzhagen
2.13
Hammer SpVg
1.19

Meinerzhagen creates 79% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 19 away

creates per match

Meinerzhagen
1.78
Hammer SpVg
0.95

allows per match

Meinerzhagen
1.44
Hammer SpVg
2.47

finishing

Meinerzhagen+0.00on par
Hammer SpVg+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meinerzhagen ↓

Hammer SpVg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Meinerzhagen or draw
79%
Meinerzhagen or Hammer SpVg
79%
Draw or Hammer SpVg
41%

Winning margin

Meinerzhagen wins by 2+
36%
Hammer SpVg wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Meinerzhagen 1+ goals
88%
Meinerzhagen 2+ goals
63%
Meinerzhagen 3+ goals
35%
Hammer SpVg 1+ goals
70%
Hammer SpVg 2+ goals
33%
Hammer SpVg 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Meinerzhagen (draw refunded)
74%
Hammer SpVg (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meinerzhagen at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

Hammer SpVg away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meinerzhagen attack 1.78 + Hammer SpVg defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.13

Hammer SpVg attack 0.95 + Meinerzhagen defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Meinerzhagen scores more
59%
level
21%
Hammer SpVg scores more
21%

Meinerzhagen at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Meinerzhagen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Meinerzhagen vs Hammer SpVg

Meinerzhagen beat Hammer SpVg 3-0 in Oberliga - Westfalen on May 1, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion An der Oststraße in Meinerzhagen.