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Meinerzhagen vs Finnentrop / Bamenohl — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Meinerzhagen
Meinerzhagen
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 4
Finnentrop / Bamenohl
Finnentrop / Bamenohl
2/20/2022Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 17Stadion An der Oststraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Meinerzhagen54%
×Draw21%
Finnentrop / Bamenohl25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meinerzhagen
2.13
Finnentrop / Bamenohl
1.40

Meinerzhagen creates 52% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 89 away

creates per match

Meinerzhagen
1.78
Finnentrop / Bamenohl
1.35

allows per match

Meinerzhagen
1.44
Finnentrop / Bamenohl
2.47

finishing

Meinerzhagen+0.00on par
Finnentrop / Bamenohl+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meinerzhagen ↓

Finnentrop / Bamenohl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Meinerzhagen or draw
75%
Meinerzhagen or Finnentrop / Bamenohl
79%
Draw or Finnentrop / Bamenohl
46%

Winning margin

Meinerzhagen wins by 2+
32%
Finnentrop / Bamenohl wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Meinerzhagen 1+ goals
88%
Meinerzhagen 2+ goals
63%
Meinerzhagen 3+ goals
35%
Finnentrop / Bamenohl 1+ goals
75%
Finnentrop / Bamenohl 2+ goals
41%
Finnentrop / Bamenohl 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Meinerzhagen (draw refunded)
68%
Finnentrop / Bamenohl (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meinerzhagen at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

Finnentrop / Bamenohl away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.47 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meinerzhagen attack 1.78 + Finnentrop / Bamenohl defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.13

Finnentrop / Bamenohl attack 1.35 + Meinerzhagen defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Meinerzhagen scores more
54%
level
21%
Finnentrop / Bamenohl scores more
25%

Meinerzhagen at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Meinerzhagen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Meinerzhagen vs Finnentrop / Bamenohl

Finnentrop / Bamenohl beat Meinerzhagen 4-2 in Oberliga - Westfalen on February 20, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion An der Oststraße in Meinerzhagen.