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Meinerzhagen vs Eintracht Rheine — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Meinerzhagen
Meinerzhagen
FT
1 – 2
Eintracht Rheine
Eintracht Rheine
9/3/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 2Stadion An der Oststraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Meinerzhagen49%
×Draw22%
Eintracht Rheine29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meinerzhagen
2.00
Eintracht Rheine
1.49

Meinerzhagen creates 34% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 89 away

creates per match

Meinerzhagen
1.78
Eintracht Rheine
1.54

allows per match

Meinerzhagen
1.44
Eintracht Rheine
2.22

finishing

Meinerzhagen+0.00on par
Eintracht Rheine+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meinerzhagen ↓

Eintracht Rheine →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Meinerzhagen or draw
71%
Meinerzhagen or Eintracht Rheine
78%
Draw or Eintracht Rheine
51%

Winning margin

Meinerzhagen wins by 2+
28%
Eintracht Rheine wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Meinerzhagen 1+ goals
86%
Meinerzhagen 2+ goals
59%
Meinerzhagen 3+ goals
32%
Eintracht Rheine 1+ goals
77%
Eintracht Rheine 2+ goals
44%
Eintracht Rheine 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Meinerzhagen (draw refunded)
63%
Eintracht Rheine (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meinerzhagen at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

Eintracht Rheine away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.22 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meinerzhagen attack 1.78 + Eintracht Rheine defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.00

Eintracht Rheine attack 1.54 + Meinerzhagen defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Meinerzhagen scores more
49%
level
22%
Eintracht Rheine scores more
29%

Meinerzhagen at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Meinerzhagen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Meinerzhagen 1–2 Eintracht Rheine

Eintracht Rheine beat Meinerzhagen 2-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on September 3, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion An der Oststraße in Meinerzhagen.