Mégrine 0–0 Menzel Bourguiba: Result & Stats

Mégrine

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Menzel Bourguiba

11/2/2025

Ligue 2 · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Mégrine64%

×Draw24%

Menzel Bourguiba12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MégrineExpected goals in this matchMenzel Bourguiba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.52

Mégrine

1.59

Menzel Bourguiba

0.52

Mégrine creates 206% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

1.38

creates per match

0.27

0.77

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Mégrine

1.38

Menzel Bourguiba

0.27

allows per match

Mégrine

0.77

Menzel Bourguiba

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mégrine+0.00on par

Menzel Bourguiba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mégrine ↓

Menzel Bourguiba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–110%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Mégrine or draw

88%

Mégrine or Menzel Bourguiba

76%

Draw or Menzel Bourguiba

36%

Winning margin

Mégrine wins by 2+

35%

Menzel Bourguiba wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Mégrine 1+ goals

80%

Mégrine 2+ goals

47%

Mégrine 3+ goals

21%

Menzel Bourguiba 1+ goals

41%

Menzel Bourguiba 2+ goals

10%

Menzel Bourguiba 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Mégrine (draw refunded)

84%

Menzel Bourguiba (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mégrine at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.77 · 26 matches

Menzel Bourguiba away — creates 0.27, concedes 1.81 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mégrine attack 1.38 + Menzel Bourguiba defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.59

Menzel Bourguiba attack 0.27 + Mégrine defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Mégrine scores more

64%

level

24%

Menzel Bourguiba scores more

12%

Mégrine at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Mégrine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff