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Mégrine vs Kalaâ Sport — Ligue 2 2020

Mégrine
Mégrine
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kalaâ Sport
Kalaâ Sport
O. Aziz 90+1'
A. Jaouadi 65'
M. Ouerfelli 13'
3/9/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 18Stade Hammouda Haddad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Mégrine54%
×Draw27%
Kalaâ Sport19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mégrine
1.44
Kalaâ Sport
0.73

Mégrine creates 97% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 61 away

creates per match

Mégrine
1.38
Kalaâ Sport
0.70

allows per match

Mégrine
0.77
Kalaâ Sport
1.51

finishing

Mégrine+0.00on par
Kalaâ Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mégrine ↓

Kalaâ Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Mégrine or draw
81%
Mégrine or Kalaâ Sport
73%
Draw or Kalaâ Sport
46%

Winning margin

Mégrine wins by 2+
27%
Kalaâ Sport wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Mégrine 1+ goals
76%
Mégrine 2+ goals
42%
Mégrine 3+ goals
18%
Kalaâ Sport 1+ goals
52%
Kalaâ Sport 2+ goals
17%
Kalaâ Sport 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mégrine (draw refunded)
74%
Kalaâ Sport (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mégrine at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.77 · 26 matches

Kalaâ Sport away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.51 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mégrine attack 1.38 + Kalaâ Sport defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.44

Kalaâ Sport attack 0.70 + Mégrine defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Mégrine scores more
54%
level
27%
Kalaâ Sport scores more
19%

Mégrine at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Mégrine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
M. Ouerfelli
65'
A. Jaouadi
90+1'
O. Aziz

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Mégrine 3–0 Kalaâ Sport

Mégrine beat Kalaâ Sport 3-0 in Ligue 2 on March 9, 2025.

Goals: M. Ouerfelli (13'), A. Jaouadi (65'), O. Aziz (90+1').

The match was played at Stade Hammouda Haddad in Mégrine.