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Mégrine vs EM Mahdia — Ligue 2 2020

Mégrine
Mégrine
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
EM Mahdia
EM Mahdia
4/18/2026Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Mégrine50%
×Draw29%
EM Mahdia21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mégrine
1.32
EM Mahdia
0.75

Mégrine creates 76% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 55 away

creates per match

Mégrine
1.38
EM Mahdia
0.73

allows per match

Mégrine
0.77
EM Mahdia
1.27

finishing

Mégrine+0.00on par
EM Mahdia+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mégrine ↓

EM Mahdia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Mégrine or draw
79%
Mégrine or EM Mahdia
71%
Draw or EM Mahdia
50%

Winning margin

Mégrine wins by 2+
24%
EM Mahdia wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Mégrine 1+ goals
73%
Mégrine 2+ goals
38%
Mégrine 3+ goals
15%
EM Mahdia 1+ goals
53%
EM Mahdia 2+ goals
17%
EM Mahdia 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mégrine (draw refunded)
70%
EM Mahdia (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mégrine at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.77 · 26 matches

EM Mahdia away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.27 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mégrine attack 1.38 + EM Mahdia defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.32

EM Mahdia attack 0.73 + Mégrine defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Mégrine scores more
50%
level
29%
EM Mahdia scores more
21%

Mégrine at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Mégrine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Mégrine 0–0 EM Mahdia

Mégrine and EM Mahdia drew 0-0 in Ligue 2 on April 18, 2026.