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Mégrine vs AS Marsa — Ligue 2 2020

Mégrine
Mégrine
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
AS Marsa
AS Marsa
4/12/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 20Stade Hammouda Haddad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Mégrine35%
×Draw30%
AS Marsa35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mégrine
1.06
AS Marsa
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 24 away

creates per match

Mégrine
1.38
AS Marsa
1.38

allows per match

Mégrine
0.77
AS Marsa
0.75

finishing

Mégrine+0.00on par
AS Marsa+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mégrine ↓

AS Marsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Mégrine or draw
65%
Mégrine or AS Marsa
70%
Draw or AS Marsa
65%

Winning margin

Mégrine wins by 2+
14%
AS Marsa wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Mégrine 1+ goals
65%
Mégrine 2+ goals
29%
Mégrine 3+ goals
9%
AS Marsa 1+ goals
66%
AS Marsa 2+ goals
29%
AS Marsa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mégrine (draw refunded)
50%
AS Marsa (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mégrine at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.77 · 26 matches

AS Marsa away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.75 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mégrine attack 1.38 + AS Marsa defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.06

AS Marsa attack 1.38 + Mégrine defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Mégrine scores more
35%
level
30%
AS Marsa scores more
35%

Mégrine at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Mégrine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Mégrine 1–1 AS Marsa

Mégrine and AS Marsa drew 1-1 in Ligue 2 on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Hammouda Haddad in Mégrine.