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Meerssen vs UNA — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Meerssen
Meerssen
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
UNA
UNA
1/14/2024Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 18Sportpark Marsana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Meerssen40%
×Draw23%
UNA37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meerssen
1.68
UNA
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 98 away

creates per match

Meerssen
1.75
UNA
1.64

allows per match

Meerssen
1.59
UNA
1.60

finishing

Meerssen+0.00on par
UNA+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meerssen ↓

UNA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Meerssen or draw
63%
Meerssen or UNA
77%
Draw or UNA
60%

Winning margin

Meerssen wins by 2+
20%
UNA wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Meerssen 1+ goals
81%
Meerssen 2+ goals
50%
Meerssen 3+ goals
24%
UNA 1+ goals
80%
UNA 2+ goals
48%
UNA 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Meerssen (draw refunded)
52%
UNA (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meerssen at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.59 · 51 matches

UNA away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.60 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meerssen attack 1.75 + UNA defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.68

UNA attack 1.64 + Meerssen defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Meerssen scores more
40%
level
23%
UNA scores more
37%

Meerssen at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Meerssen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: Meerssen 1–1 UNA

Meerssen and UNA drew 1-1 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Marsana in Meerssen.