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Meerssen vs Baronie — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Meerssen
Meerssen
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 2
Baronie
Baronie
11/5/2023Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 11Sportpark Marsana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Meerssen55%
×Draw21%
Baronie25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meerssen
2.16
Baronie
1.40

Meerssen creates 54% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

creates per match

Meerssen
1.75
Baronie
1.21

allows per match

Meerssen
1.59
Baronie
2.56

finishing

Meerssen+0.00on par
Baronie+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meerssen ↓

Baronie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Meerssen or draw
75%
Meerssen or Baronie
79%
Draw or Baronie
45%

Winning margin

Meerssen wins by 2+
33%
Baronie wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Meerssen 1+ goals
88%
Meerssen 2+ goals
63%
Meerssen 3+ goals
36%
Baronie 1+ goals
75%
Baronie 2+ goals
41%
Baronie 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Meerssen (draw refunded)
69%
Baronie (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meerssen at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.59 · 51 matches

Baronie away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.56 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meerssen attack 1.75 + Baronie defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.16

Baronie attack 1.21 + Meerssen defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Meerssen scores more
55%
level
21%
Baronie scores more
25%

Meerssen at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Meerssen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: Meerssen 3–2 Baronie

Meerssen beat Baronie 3-2 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Marsana in Meerssen.