Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Meerssen vs AWC — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Meerssen
Meerssen
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
AWC
AWC
12/17/2023Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 17Sportpark Marsana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Meerssen56%
×Draw22%
AWC22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meerssen
2.00
AWC
1.18

Meerssen creates 69% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

Meerssen
1.75
AWC
0.76

allows per match

Meerssen
1.59
AWC
2.24

finishing

Meerssen+0.00on par
AWC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meerssen ↓

AWC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Meerssen or draw
78%
Meerssen or AWC
78%
Draw or AWC
44%

Winning margin

Meerssen wins by 2+
33%
AWC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Meerssen 1+ goals
86%
Meerssen 2+ goals
59%
Meerssen 3+ goals
32%
AWC 1+ goals
69%
AWC 2+ goals
33%
AWC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Meerssen (draw refunded)
72%
AWC (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meerssen at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.59 · 51 matches

AWC away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meerssen attack 1.75 + AWC defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.00

AWC attack 0.76 + Meerssen defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Meerssen scores more
56%
level
22%
AWC scores more
22%

Meerssen at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Meerssen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: Meerssen 2–0 AWC

Meerssen beat AWC 2-0 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on December 17, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Marsana in Meerssen.