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Meerbusch vs SF Baumberg — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Meerbusch
Meerbusch
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
SF Baumberg
SF Baumberg
2/18/2024Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 19Sportplatz Lank

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Meerbusch38%
×Draw22%
SF Baumberg41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meerbusch
1.83
SF Baumberg
1.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 95 away

creates per match

Meerbusch
1.74
SF Baumberg
1.91

allows per match

Meerbusch
1.88
SF Baumberg
1.93

finishing

Meerbusch+0.00on par
SF Baumberg+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meerbusch ↓

SF Baumberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Meerbusch or draw
59%
Meerbusch or SF Baumberg
78%
Draw or SF Baumberg
62%

Winning margin

Meerbusch wins by 2+
20%
SF Baumberg wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Meerbusch 1+ goals
84%
Meerbusch 2+ goals
54%
Meerbusch 3+ goals
28%
SF Baumberg 1+ goals
85%
SF Baumberg 2+ goals
56%
SF Baumberg 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Meerbusch (draw refunded)
48%
SF Baumberg (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meerbusch at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.88 · 90 matches

SF Baumberg away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.93 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meerbusch attack 1.74 + SF Baumberg defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.83

SF Baumberg attack 1.91 + Meerbusch defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Meerbusch scores more
38%
level
22%
SF Baumberg scores more
41%

SF Baumberg at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "SF Baumberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: Meerbusch 2–0 SF Baumberg

Meerbusch beat SF Baumberg 2-0 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Lank in Meerbusch.