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Meerbusch vs Schonnebeck — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Meerbusch
Meerbusch
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Schonnebeck
Schonnebeck
10/5/2025Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 8Rasenplatz Lank

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Meerbusch33%
×Draw22%
Schonnebeck45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meerbusch
1.66
Schonnebeck
1.94

Schonnebeck creates 17% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 91 away

creates per match

Meerbusch
1.74
Schonnebeck
2.00

allows per match

Meerbusch
1.88
Schonnebeck
1.57

finishing

Meerbusch+0.00on par
Schonnebeck+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meerbusch ↓

Schonnebeck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Meerbusch or draw
55%
Meerbusch or Schonnebeck
78%
Draw or Schonnebeck
67%

Winning margin

Meerbusch wins by 2+
16%
Schonnebeck wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Meerbusch 1+ goals
81%
Meerbusch 2+ goals
49%
Meerbusch 3+ goals
23%
Schonnebeck 1+ goals
86%
Schonnebeck 2+ goals
58%
Schonnebeck 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Meerbusch (draw refunded)
43%
Schonnebeck (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meerbusch at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.88 · 90 matches

Schonnebeck away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.57 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meerbusch attack 1.74 + Schonnebeck defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.66

Schonnebeck attack 2.00 + Meerbusch defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Meerbusch scores more
33%
level
22%
Schonnebeck scores more
45%

Schonnebeck at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Schonnebeck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Meerbusch vs Schonnebeck

Meerbusch and Schonnebeck drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on October 5, 2025.

The match was played at Rasenplatz Lank in Meerbusch.