Meerbusch 2–1 SC Velbert: Result & Stats

Meerbusch

FT

2 – 1

SC Velbert

9/6/2020

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 1Sportplatz Lank

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Meerbusch56%

×Draw20%

SC Velbert24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MeerbuschExpected goals in this matchSC Velbert

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.28

1.44

Meerbusch

2.28

SC Velbert

1.44

Meerbusch creates 58% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 22 away

1.74

creates per match

1.00

1.88

allows per match

2.82

creates per match

Meerbusch

1.74

SC Velbert

1.00

allows per match

Meerbusch

1.88

SC Velbert

2.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Meerbusch+0.00on par

SC Velbert+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meerbusch ↓

SC Velbert →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Meerbusch or draw

76%

Meerbusch or SC Velbert

80%

Draw or SC Velbert

44%

Winning margin

Meerbusch wins by 2+

35%

SC Velbert wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Meerbusch 1+ goals

90%

Meerbusch 2+ goals

66%

Meerbusch 3+ goals

39%

SC Velbert 1+ goals

76%

SC Velbert 2+ goals

42%

SC Velbert 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Meerbusch (draw refunded)

70%

SC Velbert (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meerbusch at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.88 · 90 matches

SC Velbert away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meerbusch attack 1.74 + SC Velbert defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.28

SC Velbert attack 1.00 + Meerbusch defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Meerbusch scores more

56%

level

20%

SC Velbert scores more

24%

Meerbusch at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Meerbusch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff