Meerbusch 1–1 Mülheimer: Result & Stats

Meerbusch

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Mülheimer

10/3/2024

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 8Sportplatz Lank

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Meerbusch54%

×Draw21%

Mülheimer25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MeerbuschExpected goals in this matchMülheimer

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.42

Meerbusch

2.13

Mülheimer

1.42

Meerbusch creates 50% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 34 away

1.74

creates per match

0.97

1.88

allows per match

2.53

creates per match

Meerbusch

1.74

Mülheimer

0.97

allows per match

Meerbusch

1.88

Mülheimer

2.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Meerbusch+0.00on par

Mülheimer+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meerbusch ↓

Mülheimer →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Meerbusch or draw

75%

Meerbusch or Mülheimer

79%

Draw or Mülheimer

46%

Winning margin

Meerbusch wins by 2+

32%

Mülheimer wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Meerbusch 1+ goals

88%

Meerbusch 2+ goals

63%

Meerbusch 3+ goals

35%

Mülheimer 1+ goals

76%

Mülheimer 2+ goals

41%

Mülheimer 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Meerbusch (draw refunded)

68%

Mülheimer (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meerbusch at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.88 · 90 matches

Mülheimer away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.53 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meerbusch attack 1.74 + Mülheimer defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.13

Mülheimer attack 0.97 + Meerbusch defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Meerbusch scores more

54%

level

21%

Mülheimer scores more

25%

Meerbusch at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Meerbusch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff