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Meerbusch vs MSV Düsseldorf — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Meerbusch
Meerbusch
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
MSV Düsseldorf
MSV Düsseldorf
2/5/2023Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 23Sportplatz Lank

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Meerbusch36%
×Draw22%
MSV Düsseldorf42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meerbusch
1.79
MSV Düsseldorf
1.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 20 away

creates per match

Meerbusch
1.74
MSV Düsseldorf
2.00

allows per match

Meerbusch
1.88
MSV Düsseldorf
1.85

finishing

Meerbusch+0.00on par
MSV Düsseldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meerbusch ↓

MSV Düsseldorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Meerbusch or draw
58%
Meerbusch or MSV Düsseldorf
78%
Draw or MSV Düsseldorf
64%

Winning margin

Meerbusch wins by 2+
19%
MSV Düsseldorf wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Meerbusch 1+ goals
83%
Meerbusch 2+ goals
53%
Meerbusch 3+ goals
26%
MSV Düsseldorf 1+ goals
86%
MSV Düsseldorf 2+ goals
58%
MSV Düsseldorf 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Meerbusch (draw refunded)
46%
MSV Düsseldorf (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meerbusch at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.88 · 90 matches

MSV Düsseldorf away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.85 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meerbusch attack 1.74 + MSV Düsseldorf defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.79

MSV Düsseldorf attack 2.00 + Meerbusch defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Meerbusch scores more
36%
level
22%
MSV Düsseldorf scores more
42%

MSV Düsseldorf at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "MSV Düsseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: Meerbusch 2–1 MSV Düsseldorf

Meerbusch beat MSV Düsseldorf 2-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on February 5, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Lank in Meerbusch.