Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Meerbusch vs Jahn Hiesfeld — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Meerbusch
Meerbusch
CANC
14:00
Jahn Hiesfeld
Jahn Hiesfeld
11/29/2020Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 16Sportplatz Lank

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Meerbusch47%
×Draw21%
Jahn Hiesfeld32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meerbusch
2.10
Jahn Hiesfeld
1.69

Meerbusch creates 24% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 22 away

creates per match

Meerbusch
1.74
Jahn Hiesfeld
1.50

allows per match

Meerbusch
1.88
Jahn Hiesfeld
2.45

finishing

Meerbusch+0.00on par
Jahn Hiesfeld+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meerbusch ↓

Jahn Hiesfeld →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Meerbusch or draw
68%
Meerbusch or Jahn Hiesfeld
79%
Draw or Jahn Hiesfeld
53%

Winning margin

Meerbusch wins by 2+
27%
Jahn Hiesfeld wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Meerbusch 1+ goals
88%
Meerbusch 2+ goals
62%
Meerbusch 3+ goals
35%
Jahn Hiesfeld 1+ goals
82%
Jahn Hiesfeld 2+ goals
50%
Jahn Hiesfeld 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Meerbusch (draw refunded)
60%
Jahn Hiesfeld (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meerbusch at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.88 · 90 matches

Jahn Hiesfeld away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.45 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meerbusch attack 1.74 + Jahn Hiesfeld defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.10

Jahn Hiesfeld attack 1.50 + Meerbusch defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Meerbusch scores more
47%
level
21%
Jahn Hiesfeld scores more
32%

Meerbusch at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Meerbusch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Meerbusch host Jahn Hiesfeld

November 29, 2020: Meerbusch take on Jahn Hiesfeld in Oberliga - Niederrhein. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Meerbusch host Jahn Hiesfeld at Sportplatz Lank.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.