Meerbusch 0–0 Fortuna Köln: Result & Stats

Meerbusch

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fortuna Köln

1/8/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportplatz Lank

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Meerbusch5%

×Draw11%

Fortuna Köln84%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MeerbuschExpected goals in this matchFortuna Köln

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.56

2.89

Meerbusch

0.56

Fortuna Köln

2.89

Fortuna Köln creates 416% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

0.33

creates per match

2.11

3.67

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

Meerbusch

0.33

Fortuna Köln

2.11

allows per match

Meerbusch

3.67

Fortuna Köln

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Meerbusch+0.00on par

Fortuna Köln+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meerbusch ↓

Fortuna Köln →

0–03%

0–19%

0–214%

0–313%

0–49%

1–02%

1–15%

1–28%

1–37%

1–45%

2–01%

2–11%

2–22%

2–32%

2–41%

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (14%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Meerbusch or draw

16%

Meerbusch or Fortuna Köln

89%

Draw or Fortuna Köln

95%

Winning margin

Meerbusch wins by 2+

Fortuna Köln wins by 2+

65%

Team goals

Meerbusch 1+ goals

43%

Meerbusch 2+ goals

11%

Meerbusch 3+ goals

Fortuna Köln 1+ goals

94%

Fortuna Köln 2+ goals

78%

Fortuna Köln 3+ goals

54%

Draw no bet

Meerbusch (draw refunded)

Fortuna Köln (draw refunded)

95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Meerbusch at home — creates 0.33, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

Fortuna Köln away — creates 2.11, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Meerbusch attack 0.33 + Fortuna Köln defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.56

Fortuna Köln attack 2.11 + Meerbusch defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 84%?"

Meerbusch scores more

level

11%

Fortuna Köln scores more

84%

Fortuna Köln at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Fortuna Köln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff