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Meerbusch vs Cronenberger SC — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Meerbusch
Meerbusch
FT
6 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cronenberger SC
Cronenberger SC
8/14/2022Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 3Sportplatz Lank

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Meerbusch51%
×Draw21%
Cronenberger SC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meerbusch
2.11
Cronenberger SC
1.50

Meerbusch creates 41% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 42 away

creates per match

Meerbusch
1.74
Cronenberger SC
1.12

allows per match

Meerbusch
1.88
Cronenberger SC
2.48

finishing

Meerbusch+0.00on par
Cronenberger SC+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meerbusch ↓

Cronenberger SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Meerbusch or draw
73%
Meerbusch or Cronenberger SC
79%
Draw or Cronenberger SC
49%

Winning margin

Meerbusch wins by 2+
30%
Cronenberger SC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Meerbusch 1+ goals
88%
Meerbusch 2+ goals
62%
Meerbusch 3+ goals
35%
Cronenberger SC 1+ goals
78%
Cronenberger SC 2+ goals
44%
Cronenberger SC 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Meerbusch (draw refunded)
65%
Cronenberger SC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meerbusch at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.88 · 90 matches

Cronenberger SC away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.48 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meerbusch attack 1.74 + Cronenberger SC defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.11

Cronenberger SC attack 1.12 + Meerbusch defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Meerbusch scores more
51%
level
21%
Cronenberger SC scores more
27%

Meerbusch at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Meerbusch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Meerbusch vs Cronenberger SC

Meerbusch beat Cronenberger SC 6-0 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on August 14, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Lank in Meerbusch.