Meerbusch U19 1–7 Arminia Bielefeld U19

Meerbusch U19

FT

1 – 7

HT: 1 – 2

Arminia Bielefeld U19

Y. El Kandri 16'

H. Obermeyer 85'

T. Coşar 72', 64'

J. Lukas 66'

M. Lippert 53', 26'

T. Krüger 11'

2/22/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 4Rasenplatz Lank

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Meerbusch U1929%

×Draw21%

Arminia Bielefeld U1950%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Meerbusch U19Expected goals in this matchArminia Bielefeld U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

2.19

Meerbusch U19

1.64

Arminia Bielefeld U19

2.19

Arminia Bielefeld U19 creates 34% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 62 away

1.21

creates per match

1.44

2.93

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Meerbusch U19

1.21

Arminia Bielefeld U19

1.44

allows per match

Meerbusch U19

2.93

Arminia Bielefeld U19

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Meerbusch U19+0.00on par

Arminia Bielefeld U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meerbusch U19 ↓

Arminia Bielefeld U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Meerbusch U19 or draw

50%

Meerbusch U19 or Arminia Bielefeld U19

79%

Draw or Arminia Bielefeld U19

71%

Winning margin

Meerbusch U19 wins by 2+

14%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Meerbusch U19 1+ goals

81%

Meerbusch U19 2+ goals

49%

Meerbusch U19 3+ goals

23%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 1+ goals

89%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 2+ goals

64%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Meerbusch U19 (draw refunded)

37%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meerbusch U19 at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.93 · 14 matches

Arminia Bielefeld U19 away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.06 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meerbusch U19 attack 1.21 + Arminia Bielefeld U19 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.64

Arminia Bielefeld U19 attack 1.44 + Meerbusch U19 defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Meerbusch U19 scores more

29%

level

21%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 scores more

50%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Arminia Bielefeld U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

T. Krüger

16'

Y. El Kandri

26'

M. Lippert

40'

K. Mischtal← Y. El Kandri

46'

53'

58'

64'

66'

72'

73'

73'

T. Bärenwaldt← B. Afghanyar

76'

J. Karakis← D. Aserov

76'

T. Behle← J. Gaudian

81'

S. Wolker← M. Lippert

85'

H. Obermeyer

Meerbusch

Arminia

Jäger

Afolabi

Möllers

⚽2

▼

Lippert

⚽

Lukas

⚽

Obermeyer

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Kandri

▼

Aserov

Asamoah

Manager: M. Roch

40'▲K. Mischtal←▼Y. El Kandri

58'▲L. Lahi←▼P. Müller

76'▲J. Karakis←▼D. Aserov

76'▲T. Behle←▼J. Gaudian

Meerbusch U19 substitutes

MischtalLahiKarakisBehleGrabekZeller

Manager: M. Drobe

46'▲T. Coşar←▼L. Unruh

73'▲K. Kruse←▼T. Krüger

73'▲T. Bärenwaldt←▼B. Afghanyar

81'▲S. Wolker←▼M. Lippert

Arminia Bielefeld U19 substitutes

CoşarKruseBärenwaldtWolkerKollmeier