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Medyk Konin W vs Stomilanki Olsztyn W — Ekstraliga Women 2023

Medyk Konin W
Medyk Konin W
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Stomilanki Olsztyn W
Stomilanki Olsztyn W
4/27/2024Ekstraliga WomenEkstraliga Women · Round 18Stadion Miejski im. Złotej Jedenastki Kazimierza Górskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Medyk Konin W51%
×Draw20%
Stomilanki Olsztyn W29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Medyk Konin W
2.38
Stomilanki Olsztyn W
1.79

Medyk Konin W creates 33% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 32 away

creates per match

Medyk Konin W
1.64
Stomilanki Olsztyn W
0.94

allows per match

Medyk Konin W
2.64
Stomilanki Olsztyn W
3.13

finishing

Medyk Konin W+0.00on par
Stomilanki Olsztyn W+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Medyk Konin W ↓

Stomilanki Olsztyn W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–26%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Medyk Konin W or draw
71%
Medyk Konin W or Stomilanki Olsztyn W
80%
Draw or Stomilanki Olsztyn W
49%

Winning margin

Medyk Konin W wins by 2+
31%
Stomilanki Olsztyn W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Medyk Konin W 1+ goals
91%
Medyk Konin W 2+ goals
68%
Medyk Konin W 3+ goals
42%
Stomilanki Olsztyn W 1+ goals
83%
Stomilanki Olsztyn W 2+ goals
53%
Stomilanki Olsztyn W 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Medyk Konin W (draw refunded)
63%
Stomilanki Olsztyn W (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Medyk Konin W at home — creates 1.64, concedes 2.64 · 11 matches

Stomilanki Olsztyn W away — creates 0.94, concedes 3.13 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Medyk Konin W attack 1.64 + Stomilanki Olsztyn W defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.38

Stomilanki Olsztyn W attack 0.94 + Medyk Konin W defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Medyk Konin W scores more
51%
level
20%
Stomilanki Olsztyn W scores more
29%

Medyk Konin W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Medyk Konin W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Medyk Konin W vs Stomilanki Olsztyn W

Medyk Konin W beat Stomilanki Olsztyn W 3-1 in Ekstraliga Women on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Złotej Jedenastki Kazimierza Górskiego in Konin.