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Medyk Konin W vs Górnik Łęczna W — Ekstraliga Women 2023

Medyk Konin W
Medyk Konin W
FT
2 – 5
HT: 2 – 3
Górnik Łęczna W
Górnik Łęczna W
10/14/2023Ekstraliga WomenEkstraliga Women · Round 8Stadion Miejski im. Złotej Jedenastki Kazimierza Górskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Medyk Konin W20%
×Draw19%
Górnik Łęczna W61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Medyk Konin W
1.41
Górnik Łęczna W
2.52

Górnik Łęczna W creates 79% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 33 away

creates per match

Medyk Konin W
1.64
Górnik Łęczna W
2.39

allows per match

Medyk Konin W
2.64
Górnik Łęczna W
1.18

finishing

Medyk Konin W+0.00on par
Górnik Łęczna W+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Medyk Konin W ↓

Górnik Łęczna W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Medyk Konin W or draw
39%
Medyk Konin W or Górnik Łęczna W
81%
Draw or Górnik Łęczna W
80%

Winning margin

Medyk Konin W wins by 2+
9%
Górnik Łęczna W wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Medyk Konin W 1+ goals
76%
Medyk Konin W 2+ goals
41%
Medyk Konin W 3+ goals
17%
Górnik Łęczna W 1+ goals
92%
Górnik Łęczna W 2+ goals
71%
Górnik Łęczna W 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Medyk Konin W (draw refunded)
25%
Górnik Łęczna W (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Medyk Konin W at home — creates 1.64, concedes 2.64 · 11 matches

Górnik Łęczna W away — creates 2.39, concedes 1.18 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Medyk Konin W attack 1.64 + Górnik Łęczna W defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.41

Górnik Łęczna W attack 2.39 + Medyk Konin W defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Medyk Konin W scores more
20%
level
19%
Górnik Łęczna W scores more
61%

Górnik Łęczna W at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Górnik Łęczna W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Medyk Konin W vs Górnik Łęczna W

Górnik Łęczna W beat Medyk Konin W 5-2 in Ekstraliga Women on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Złotej Jedenastki Kazimierza Górskiego in Konin.