Medkila W 2–4 KIL / Hemne W: Result & Stats

Medkila W

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

KIL / Hemne W

10/1/2022

1. Division Women · Relegation Round - 4Harstad Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Medkila W44%

×Draw22%

KIL / Hemne W34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Medkila WExpected goals in this matchKIL / Hemne W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.66

Medkila W

1.89

KIL / Hemne W

1.66

Medkila W creates 14% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 46 away

1.67

creates per match

1.07

2.25

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Medkila W

1.67

KIL / Hemne W

1.07

allows per match

Medkila W

2.25

KIL / Hemne W

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Medkila W+0.00on par

KIL / Hemne W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Medkila W ↓

KIL / Hemne W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Medkila W or draw

66%

Medkila W or KIL / Hemne W

78%

Draw or KIL / Hemne W

56%

Winning margin

Medkila W wins by 2+

24%

KIL / Hemne W wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Medkila W 1+ goals

85%

Medkila W 2+ goals

56%

Medkila W 3+ goals

29%

KIL / Hemne W 1+ goals

81%

KIL / Hemne W 2+ goals

49%

KIL / Hemne W 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Medkila W (draw refunded)

56%

KIL / Hemne W (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Medkila W at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

KIL / Hemne W away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.11 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Medkila W attack 1.67 + KIL / Hemne W defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.89

KIL / Hemne W attack 1.07 + Medkila W defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Medkila W scores more

44%

level

22%

KIL / Hemne W scores more

34%

Medkila W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Medkila W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff