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Medkila vs Fortuna Ålesund — 1. Division Women 2022

Medkila
Medkila
FT
4 – 2
Fortuna Ålesund
Fortuna Ålesund
5/1/20221. Division Women1. Division Women · Round 6Harstad Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Medkila29%
×Draw22%
Fortuna Ålesund49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Medkila
1.46
Fortuna Ålesund
1.96

Fortuna Ålesund creates 34% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 48 away

creates per match

Medkila
1.67
Fortuna Ålesund
1.67

allows per match

Medkila
2.25
Fortuna Ålesund
1.25

finishing

Medkila+0.00on par
Fortuna Ålesund+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Medkila ↓

Fortuna Ålesund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Medkila or draw
51%
Medkila or Fortuna Ålesund
78%
Draw or Fortuna Ålesund
71%

Winning margin

Medkila wins by 2+
13%
Fortuna Ålesund wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Medkila 1+ goals
77%
Medkila 2+ goals
43%
Medkila 3+ goals
18%
Fortuna Ålesund 1+ goals
86%
Fortuna Ålesund 2+ goals
58%
Fortuna Ålesund 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Medkila (draw refunded)
37%
Fortuna Ålesund (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Medkila at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

Fortuna Ålesund away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.25 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Medkila attack 1.67 + Fortuna Ålesund defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.46

Fortuna Ålesund attack 1.67 + Medkila defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Medkila scores more
29%
level
22%
Fortuna Ålesund scores more
49%

Fortuna Ålesund at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Fortuna Ålesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Medkila vs Fortuna Ålesund

Medkila beat Fortuna Ålesund 4-2 in 1. Division Women on May 1, 2022.

The match was played at Harstad Stadion in Harstad.