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Medjimurje Cakovec vs NK Osijek II — First NL 2018

Medjimurje Cakovec
Medjimurje Cakovec
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
NK Osijek II
NK Osijek II
11/10/2018First NLFirst NL · Round 12Stadion SRC Mladost (Čakovec)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Medjimurje Cakovec42%
×Draw25%
NK Osijek II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Medjimurje Cakovec
1.47
NK Osijek II
1.27

Medjimurje Cakovec creates 16% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 55 away

creates per match

Medjimurje Cakovec
1.52
NK Osijek II
1.02

allows per match

Medjimurje Cakovec
1.52
NK Osijek II
1.42

finishing

Medjimurje Cakovec+0.00on par
NK Osijek II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Medjimurje Cakovec ↓

NK Osijek II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Medjimurje Cakovec or draw
67%
Medjimurje Cakovec or NK Osijek II
75%
Draw or NK Osijek II
58%

Winning margin

Medjimurje Cakovec wins by 2+
20%
NK Osijek II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Medjimurje Cakovec 1+ goals
77%
Medjimurje Cakovec 2+ goals
43%
Medjimurje Cakovec 3+ goals
18%
NK Osijek II 1+ goals
72%
NK Osijek II 2+ goals
36%
NK Osijek II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Medjimurje Cakovec (draw refunded)
56%
NK Osijek II (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Medjimurje Cakovec at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.52 · 40 matches

NK Osijek II away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.42 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Medjimurje Cakovec attack 1.52 + NK Osijek II defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.47

NK Osijek II attack 1.02 + Medjimurje Cakovec defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Medjimurje Cakovec scores more
42%
level
25%
NK Osijek II scores more
33%

Medjimurje Cakovec at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Medjimurje Cakovec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First NL: Medjimurje Cakovec 2–1 NK Osijek II

Medjimurje Cakovec beat NK Osijek II 2-1 in First NL on November 10, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion SRC Mladost (Čakovec).