Medjimurje Cakovec 0–1 Dinamo Zagreb II

Medjimurje Cakovec

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Dinamo Zagreb II

B. Karrica 45'

5/8/2021

First NL · Round 30Stadion SRC Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Medjimurje Cakovec45%

×Draw25%

Dinamo Zagreb II30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Medjimurje CakovecExpected goals in this matchDinamo Zagreb II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.23

Medjimurje Cakovec

1.56

Dinamo Zagreb II

1.23

Medjimurje Cakovec creates 27% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 54 away

1.52

creates per match

0.93

1.52

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Medjimurje Cakovec

1.52

Dinamo Zagreb II

0.93

allows per match

Medjimurje Cakovec

1.52

Dinamo Zagreb II

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Medjimurje Cakovec+0.00on par

Dinamo Zagreb II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Medjimurje Cakovec ↓

Dinamo Zagreb II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Medjimurje Cakovec or draw

70%

Medjimurje Cakovec or Dinamo Zagreb II

75%

Draw or Dinamo Zagreb II

55%

Winning margin

Medjimurje Cakovec wins by 2+

23%

Dinamo Zagreb II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Medjimurje Cakovec 1+ goals

79%

Medjimurje Cakovec 2+ goals

46%

Medjimurje Cakovec 3+ goals

21%

Dinamo Zagreb II 1+ goals

71%

Dinamo Zagreb II 2+ goals

35%

Dinamo Zagreb II 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Medjimurje Cakovec (draw refunded)

60%

Dinamo Zagreb II (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Medjimurje Cakovec at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.52 · 40 matches

Dinamo Zagreb II away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.61 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Medjimurje Cakovec attack 1.52 + Dinamo Zagreb II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.56

Dinamo Zagreb II attack 0.93 + Medjimurje Cakovec defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Medjimurje Cakovec scores more

45%

level

25%

Dinamo Zagreb II scores more

30%

Medjimurje Cakovec at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Medjimurje Cakovec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

B. Karrica

46'

F. Mihaljević← A. Hasanović

56'

I. Radošević← M. Čovo

66'

M. Vukotić← I. Šaranić

75'

L. Hajdinjak← J. Palić

79'

D. Kapitanović← B. Karrica

79'

L. Jelenić← P. Mijić

88'

L. Sopić← T. Duvnjak

Medjimurje

Dinamo

1

6

4

5

2

3

10

8

▼

Duvnjak

7

▼

Šaranić

11

⚽

▼

Karrica

9

▼

Mijić

9

Igrec

17

Jakupak

2

▼

1

4

24

26

▼

Čovo

30

Glavina

10

Havelka

21

▼

Hasanović

7

Marcijuš

Manager: M. Lozo

46'▲F. Mihaljević←▼A. Hasanović

56'▲I. Radošević←▼M. Čovo

75'▲L. Hajdinjak←▼J. Palić

Medjimurje Cakovec substitutes

13Mihaljević8Radošević6Hajdinjak3Gajić12Bratuša28Kuzminski

Manager: I. Cvitanović

66'▲M. Vukotić←▼I. Šaranić

79'▲D. Kapitanović←▼B. Karrica

79'▲L. Jelenić←▼P. Mijić

88'▲L. Sopić←▼T. Duvnjak

Dinamo Zagreb II substitutes

16Vukotić18Kapitanović14Jelenić15Sopić17Pejić12Bašić19Turčin13Batistić