Medina United 2–2 Steve Biko: Result & Stats

Medina United

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Steve Biko

E. Sanyang 82'

S. Jallow 11' (pen)

Unknown 22', 17'

2/3/2026

GFA League · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Medina United33%

×Draw32%

Steve Biko35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Medina UnitedExpected goals in this matchSteve Biko

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

0.97

Medina United

0.93

Steve Biko

0.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 74 away

0.93

creates per match

0.86

1.07

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Medina United

0.93

Steve Biko

0.86

allows per match

Medina United

1.07

Steve Biko

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Medina United+0.00on par

Steve Biko+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Medina United ↓

Steve Biko →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–115%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Medina United or draw

65%

Medina United or Steve Biko

68%

Draw or Steve Biko

67%

Winning margin

Medina United wins by 2+

12%

Steve Biko wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Medina United 1+ goals

61%

Medina United 2+ goals

24%

Medina United 3+ goals

7%

Steve Biko 1+ goals

62%

Steve Biko 2+ goals

25%

Steve Biko 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Medina United (draw refunded)

48%

Steve Biko (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Medina United at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Steve Biko away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.92 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Medina United attack 0.93 + Steve Biko defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.93

Steve Biko attack 0.86 + Medina United defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Medina United scores more

33%

level

32%

Steve Biko scores more

35%

Steve Biko at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Steve Biko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

S. JallowPenalty

17'

22'

82'

E. Sanyang

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff