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Medina United vs GPA — GFA League 2020

Medina United
Medina United
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
GPA
GPA
12/18/2025GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Medina United33%
×Draw32%
GPA35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Medina United
0.93
GPA
0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 44 away

creates per match

Medina United
0.93
GPA
0.89

allows per match

Medina United
1.07
GPA
0.93

finishing

Medina United+0.00on par
GPA+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Medina United ↓

GPA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Medina United or draw
65%
Medina United or GPA
68%
Draw or GPA
67%

Winning margin

Medina United wins by 2+
12%
GPA wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Medina United 1+ goals
61%
Medina United 2+ goals
24%
Medina United 3+ goals
7%
GPA 1+ goals
62%
GPA 2+ goals
26%
GPA 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Medina United (draw refunded)
48%
GPA (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Medina United at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

GPA away — creates 0.89, concedes 0.93 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Medina United attack 0.93 + GPA defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.93

GPA attack 0.89 + Medina United defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Medina United scores more
33%
level
32%
GPA scores more
35%

GPA at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "GPA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

GFA League: Medina United 0–2 GPA

GPA beat Medina United 2-0 in GFA League on December 18, 2025.