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Medina United vs Dutch Lions — GFA League 2020

Medina United
Medina United
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Dutch Lions
Dutch Lions
P. Colley 64'
A. Kanteh 26'
C. Jallow 37'
6/17/2026GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 29

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Medina United40%
×Draw31%
Dutch Lions30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Medina United
1.08
Dutch Lions
0.89

Medina United creates 21% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Medina United
0.93
Dutch Lions
0.70

allows per match

Medina United
1.07
Dutch Lions
1.23

finishing

Medina United+0.00on par
Dutch Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Medina United ↓

Dutch Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Medina United or draw
70%
Medina United or Dutch Lions
69%
Draw or Dutch Lions
60%

Winning margin

Medina United wins by 2+
16%
Dutch Lions wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Medina United 1+ goals
66%
Medina United 2+ goals
29%
Medina United 3+ goals
10%
Dutch Lions 1+ goals
59%
Dutch Lions 2+ goals
22%
Dutch Lions 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Medina United (draw refunded)
57%
Dutch Lions (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Medina United at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Dutch Lions away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Medina United attack 0.93 + Dutch Lions defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.08

Dutch Lions attack 0.70 + Medina United defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Medina United scores more
40%
level
31%
Dutch Lions scores more
30%

Medina United at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Medina United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
A. Kanteh
37'
C. Jallow
64'
P. Colley

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Medina United vs Dutch Lions

Medina United beat Dutch Lions 2-1 in GFA League on June 17, 2026.

Goals: A. Kanteh (26'), C. Jallow (37'), P. Colley (64').