Medeama 4–0 Vision: Result & Stats | Premier League

Medeama

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Vision

9/19/2025

Premier League · Round 2TNA Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Medeama58%

×Draw27%

Vision14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MedeamaExpected goals in this matchVision

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.55

Medeama

1.42

Vision

0.55

Medeama creates 158% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 33 away

1.44

creates per match

0.61

0.49

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Medeama

1.44

Vision

0.61

allows per match

Medeama

0.49

Vision

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Medeama+0.00on par

Vision+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Medeama ↓

Vision →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Medeama or draw

86%

Medeama or Vision

73%

Draw or Vision

42%

Winning margin

Medeama wins by 2+

30%

Vision wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Medeama 1+ goals

76%

Medeama 2+ goals

41%

Medeama 3+ goals

17%

Vision 1+ goals

42%

Vision 2+ goals

11%

Vision 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Medeama (draw refunded)

80%

Vision (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Medeama at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.49 · 108 matches

Vision away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Medeama attack 1.44 + Vision defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.42

Vision attack 0.61 + Medeama defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Medeama scores more

58%

level

27%

Vision scores more

14%

Medeama at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Medeama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff