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Medeama vs Samartex — Premier League 2019

Medeama
Medeama
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Samartex
Samartex
10/9/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3TNA Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Medeama55%
×Draw30%
Samartex15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Medeama
1.28
Samartex
0.52

Medeama creates 146% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 68 away

creates per match

Medeama
1.44
Samartex
0.54

allows per match

Medeama
0.49
Samartex
1.12

finishing

Medeama+0.00on par
Samartex+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Medeama ↓

Samartex →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–19%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–111%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Medeama or draw
85%
Medeama or Samartex
70%
Draw or Samartex
45%

Winning margin

Medeama wins by 2+
26%
Samartex wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Medeama 1+ goals
72%
Medeama 2+ goals
37%
Medeama 3+ goals
14%
Samartex 1+ goals
41%
Samartex 2+ goals
10%
Samartex 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Medeama (draw refunded)
79%
Samartex (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Medeama at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.49 · 108 matches

Samartex away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.12 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Medeama attack 1.44 + Samartex defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.28

Samartex attack 0.54 + Medeama defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Medeama scores more
55%
level
30%
Samartex scores more
15%

Medeama at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Medeama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Medeama vs Samartex

Medeama and Samartex drew 0-0 in Premier League on October 9, 2024.

The match was played at TNA Park in Tarkwa.