Medeama 2–1 Real Tamale: Result & Stats

Medeama

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Real Tamale

K. Ansu 27'

D. Gyanfosu 8'

M. Sadat 19'

4/10/2022

Premier League · Round 24Akoon Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Medeama65%

×Draw22%

Real Tamale13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MedeamaExpected goals in this matchReal Tamale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.68

Medeama

1.83

Real Tamale

0.68

Medeama creates 169% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 51 away

1.44

creates per match

0.86

0.49

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Medeama

1.44

Real Tamale

0.86

allows per match

Medeama

0.49

Real Tamale

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Medeama+0.00on par

Real Tamale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Medeama ↓

Real Tamale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Medeama or draw

87%

Medeama or Real Tamale

78%

Draw or Real Tamale

35%

Winning margin

Medeama wins by 2+

38%

Real Tamale wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Medeama 1+ goals

84%

Medeama 2+ goals

54%

Medeama 3+ goals

28%

Real Tamale 1+ goals

49%

Real Tamale 2+ goals

15%

Real Tamale 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Medeama (draw refunded)

83%

Real Tamale (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Medeama at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.49 · 108 matches

Real Tamale away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.22 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Medeama attack 1.44 + Real Tamale defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.83

Real Tamale attack 0.86 + Medeama defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Medeama scores more

65%

level

22%

Real Tamale scores more

13%

Medeama at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Medeama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

D. Gyanfosu

19'

M. Sadat

27'

K. Ansu

70'

B. Abaidoo← B. Abaidoo

70'

G. K. Asamoah← G. K. Asamoah

86'

J. Tetteh← J. Tetteh

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff