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Medeama vs Nsoatreman — Premier League 2019

Medeama
Medeama
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Nsoatreman
Nsoatreman
J. Mensah 56'
K. Donsu 40'
1/11/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Akoon Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Medeama62%
×Draw25%
Nsoatreman13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Medeama
1.53
Nsoatreman
0.53

Medeama creates 189% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 45 away

creates per match

Medeama
1.43
Nsoatreman
0.58

allows per match

Medeama
0.49
Nsoatreman
1.64

finishing

Medeama+0.00on par
Nsoatreman+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Medeama ↓

Nsoatreman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–110%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Medeama or draw
87%
Medeama or Nsoatreman
75%
Draw or Nsoatreman
38%

Winning margin

Medeama wins by 2+
33%
Nsoatreman wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Medeama 1+ goals
78%
Medeama 2+ goals
45%
Medeama 3+ goals
20%
Nsoatreman 1+ goals
41%
Nsoatreman 2+ goals
10%
Nsoatreman 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Medeama (draw refunded)
83%
Nsoatreman (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Medeama at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.49 · 109 matches

Nsoatreman away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.64 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Medeama attack 1.43 + Nsoatreman defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.53

Nsoatreman attack 0.58 + Medeama defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Medeama scores more
62%
level
25%
Nsoatreman scores more
13%

Medeama at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Medeama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
K. Donsu
56'
J. Mensah
66'
D. Fordjour← D. Fordjour
66'
T. Anobaah← T. Anobaah
73'
P. Opoku← P. Opoku
73'
J. Tetteh Zutah← J. Tetteh Zutah
73'
Q. Banyin← Q. Banyin
90+5'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Medeama 2–0 Nsoatreman

Medeama beat Nsoatreman 2-0 in Premier League on January 11, 2023.

Goals: K. Donsu (40'), J. Mensah (56').

The match was played at Akoon Park in Tarkwa.