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Medeama vs Elmina Sharks — Premier League 2019

Medeama
Medeama
FT
3 – 2
Elmina Sharks
Elmina Sharks
E. Ackahbi 79'
V. Atingah 45'
F. Sulemana 13'
E. Asiedu 27'
T. Mensah 4'
7/4/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 32Akoon Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Medeama63%
×Draw24%
Elmina Sharks12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Medeama
1.60
Elmina Sharks
0.54

Medeama creates 196% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 41 away

creates per match

Medeama
1.44
Elmina Sharks
0.59

allows per match

Medeama
0.49
Elmina Sharks
1.76

finishing

Medeama+0.00on par
Elmina Sharks+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Medeama ↓

Elmina Sharks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–110%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Medeama or draw
88%
Medeama or Elmina Sharks
76%
Draw or Elmina Sharks
37%

Winning margin

Medeama wins by 2+
35%
Elmina Sharks wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Medeama 1+ goals
80%
Medeama 2+ goals
47%
Medeama 3+ goals
22%
Elmina Sharks 1+ goals
42%
Elmina Sharks 2+ goals
10%
Elmina Sharks 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Medeama (draw refunded)
84%
Elmina Sharks (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Medeama at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.49 · 108 matches

Elmina Sharks away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.76 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Medeama attack 1.44 + Elmina Sharks defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.60

Elmina Sharks attack 0.59 + Medeama defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Medeama scores more
63%
level
24%
Elmina Sharks scores more
12%

Medeama at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Medeama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
T. Mensah
13'
F. Sulemana
14'
25'
27'
E. Asiedu
45'
V. Atingah
73'
79'
E. Ackahbi
86'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Medeama vs Elmina Sharks

Medeama beat Elmina Sharks 3-2 in Premier League on July 4, 2021.

Goals: T. Mensah (4'), F. Sulemana (13'), E. Asiedu (27'), V. Atingah (45'), E. Ackahbi (79').

The match was played at Akoon Park in Tarkwa.