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Medeama vs Ebusua Dwarfs — Premier League 2019

Medeama
Medeama
FT
3 – 0
Ebusua Dwarfs
Ebusua Dwarfs
P. Agyemang 67'
I. Yaro 57'
A. Toure 49'
5/2/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22Akoon Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Medeama57%
×Draw26%
Ebusua Dwarfs17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Medeama
1.48
Ebusua Dwarfs
0.67

Medeama creates 121% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 25 away

creates per match

Medeama
1.44
Ebusua Dwarfs
0.84

allows per match

Medeama
0.49
Ebusua Dwarfs
1.52

finishing

Medeama+0.00on par
Ebusua Dwarfs+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Medeama ↓

Ebusua Dwarfs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Medeama or draw
83%
Medeama or Ebusua Dwarfs
74%
Draw or Ebusua Dwarfs
43%

Winning margin

Medeama wins by 2+
29%
Ebusua Dwarfs wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Medeama 1+ goals
77%
Medeama 2+ goals
43%
Medeama 3+ goals
19%
Ebusua Dwarfs 1+ goals
49%
Ebusua Dwarfs 2+ goals
15%
Ebusua Dwarfs 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Medeama (draw refunded)
77%
Ebusua Dwarfs (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Medeama at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.49 · 108 matches

Ebusua Dwarfs away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.52 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Medeama attack 1.44 + Ebusua Dwarfs defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.48

Ebusua Dwarfs attack 0.84 + Medeama defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Medeama scores more
57%
level
26%
Ebusua Dwarfs scores more
17%

Medeama at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Medeama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
46'
49'
A. Toure
57'
I. Yaro
63'
67'
P. Agyemang

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Medeama vs Ebusua Dwarfs

Medeama beat Ebusua Dwarfs 3-0 in Premier League on May 2, 2021.

Goals: A. Toure (49'), I. Yaro (57'), P. Agyemang (67').

The match was played at Akoon Park in Tarkwa.